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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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