Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
